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2017 web tech predictions and good ideas that will not happen

1. Web devs will start owning performance on mobile

2017 will be the year where 20 seconds time-to-interactive on mid-range phones stops being cool. If you don't think that's an issue, maybe stop testing for mobile with a MacBook Pro and a small browser window.

Every Javascript library, Bootstrap release, web font and icon set adds seconds to load time on low-powered devices. The time has come for developers to own that trade-off instead of piling even more work on overworked CPUs and exhausted batteries.

In 2017 we will see teams succeed in making fast apps by simply loading less stuff. Expect radically smaller Javascript payloads and a move to minimalist CSS boilerplates. I even expect to see see web design with traditional web-safe fonts to save that 500 KB download of Open Sans which looks as dated as Arial these days.

Good idea that will not happen in 2017: Google search results showing how many minutes a page load will suck out of your battery.

2. IoT hype will continue to endanger the public

Pushed by consultants, every device that does not need to bundle Wifi and a web server will do so in 2017. Hence we're going to see a lot more botnets of unpatched toasters and lightbulbs.

I predict that there will be at least one large-scale DDoS attack caused by unmaintained household devices.

Good idea that will not happen in 2017: Regulations enforcing a best before date for networked devices, until which manufacturers are required to produce security patches.

3. Native apps must stop competing with the web (or die)

With two thirds of users having access to Progressive Web App features like store-less installation and offline support, the sweet spot for native apps must move or disappear.

If you're working on native apps right now, make sure to build something that cannot be done on the web: Large offline media, background audio, low-friction payments.

I predict that in 2017, several high-profile media properties will abandon their native apps in favor of PWAs, lowering maintenance costs and increasing engagement.

Good idea that will not happen in 2017: App stores allowing low-friction inclusion of unprivileged PWAs in their listings. We probably blew that chance by not buying Firefox phones in 2015.

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